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The Signal and the Noise: Why Most Predictions Fail-but Some Don't. Nate Silver

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The Signal and the Noise: Why Most Predictions Fail-but Some Don't Nate Silver ebook
Publisher: Penguin Group (USA) Incorporated
Page: 352
ISBN: 9781594204111

Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. The New York Times now publishes FiveThirtyEight.com, where Silver is one of the nation’s most influential political forecasters. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and ...

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